QPR vs Swansea

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Swansea

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.10 - 1.24

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 QPR last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 8, conceded 5)

6 Swansea last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 7, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): Swansea lead 4-3 (3D), avg 1.7 goals, BTTS 40%

8 QPR without: I. Chair, T. Lamptey (+6 more)

9 Swansea without: C. Burgess, J. Key (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Swansea with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.10-1.24 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward QPR, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Swansea, so treat this one with extra caution. QPR have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 5), while Swansea have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 4). Swansea lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 1.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. QPR without: I. Chair, T. Lamptey (+6 more); Swansea without: C. Burgess, J. Key (+2 more).