Portsmouth vs Millwall

Sat 24 Oct, 11:30

AI Prediction

LOW 36%

Portsmouth

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.21 - 1.74

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Portsmouth last 4 at home: 2W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 6)

6 Millwall last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 10)

7 H2H (8): Millwall lead 6-2 (0D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Portsmouth without: K. Anderson, B. Arthur (+18 more)

9 Millwall without: J. Coburn, C. De Norre (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Portsmouth with an estimated 36% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.21-1.74 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Portsmouth, so treat this one with extra caution. Millwall lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Portsmouth have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 6), while Millwall have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10). Portsmouth without: K. Anderson, B. Arthur (+18 more); Millwall without: J. Coburn, C. De Norre (+14 more).