Lincoln vs Burnley

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Burnley

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.91 - 2.65

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Lincoln last 4 at home: 0W-2D-2L (scored 2, conceded 9)

6 Burnley last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 8)

7 H2H (1): Lincoln lead 1-0 (0D), avg 1.0 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, F. Draper (+4 more)

9 Burnley without: A. Ahmedhodzic, A. Barnes (+22 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Burnley with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.91-2.65 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Burnley, so treat this one with extra caution. Lincoln have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 2, conceding 9), while Burnley have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 8). Lincoln lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 1.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Lincoln without: T. Darikwa, F. Draper (+4 more); Burnley without: A. Ahmedhodzic, A. Barnes (+22 more).