Charlton vs Norwich

Sat 24 Oct, 11:30

AI Prediction

LOW 39%

Charlton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.21 - 0.39

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Charlton last 4 at home: 1W-3D-0L (scored 2, conceded 1)

6 Norwich last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 7, conceded 13)

7 H2H (6): Norwich lead 5-1 (0D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 33%

8 Charlton without: R. Apter, C. Sichenje (+2 more)

9 Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Charlton with an estimated 39% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.21-0.39 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Norwich, while the blended pick still favours Charlton, so treat this one with extra caution. Norwich lead the head-to-head 5-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Charlton have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 2, conceding 1), while Norwich have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 13). Charlton without: R. Apter, C. Sichenje (+2 more); Norwich without: A. Ahmed, P. A. Diallo (+8 more).