Cardiff vs Birmingham

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Cardiff

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.32 - 0.99

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Cardiff last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 12, conceded 7)

6 Birmingham last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 6, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): Cardiff lead 6-1 (3D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Cardiff without: C. Chambers, R. Colwill (+8 more)

9 Birmingham without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Cardiff with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.32-0.99 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Birmingham, while the blended pick still favours Cardiff, so treat this one with extra caution. Cardiff lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Cardiff have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 7), while Birmingham have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 4). Cardiff without: C. Chambers, R. Colwill (+8 more); Birmingham without: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho (+2 more).