Blackburn vs Wrexham

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Blackburn

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.99 - 0.97

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Blackburn last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 8, conceded 8)

6 Wrexham last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 4, conceded 7)

7 H2H (3): even, 1D, avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 67%

8 Blackburn without: A. Forshaw, M. Litherland (+10 more)

9 Wrexham without: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Blackburn with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.99-0.97 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Wrexham, while the blended pick still favours Blackburn, so treat this one with extra caution. Blackburn have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 8), while Wrexham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 7). The head-to-head is even (1 win each, 1 draws in their last 3), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 67% of meetings. Blackburn without: A. Forshaw, M. Litherland (+10 more); Wrexham without: N. Broadhead, L. Cacace (+12 more).