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Millwall vs West Ham

Sat 19 Sept, 11:30

FT 2-2

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 43%

West Ham

Predicted Winner

1-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

📊

Actual result: 2-2

Predicted: 1-3 — Winner: Incorrect

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.75 - 1.41

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Millwall last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 7, conceded 4)

6 West Ham last 4 away: 2W-2D-0L (scored 10, conceded 6)

7 H2H (2): West Ham lead 1-0 (1D), avg 1.5 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Millwall without: J. Coburn, T. Crama (+18 more)

9 West Ham without: J. Veltman, A. Areola (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours West Ham with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.75-1.41 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Millwall, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours West Ham, so treat this one with extra caution. Millwall have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 7, conceding 4), while West Ham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 10, conceding 6). West Ham lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 1.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Millwall without: J. Coburn, T. Crama (+18 more); West Ham without: J. Veltman, A. Areola (+4 more).