Wolves vs Portsmouth

Tue 20 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Wolves

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 8pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.11 - 1.04

4 Wolves last 3 at home: 2W-0D-1L (scored 6, conceded 4)

5 Portsmouth last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 4)

6 Wolves without: A. Armstrong, R. Gomes (+8 more)

7 Portsmouth without: B. Arthur, L. Brooke-Smith (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Wolves with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.11-1.04 goals). The market is more confident in Wolves than the model is — the blend sits 8 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Wolves have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 6, conceding 4), while Portsmouth have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 4). Wolves without: A. Armstrong, R. Gomes (+8 more); Portsmouth without: B. Arthur, L. Brooke-Smith (+16 more).