Sunderland vs Chelsea

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 50%

Chelsea

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.33 - 1.12

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Sunderland last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

6 Chelsea last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Sunderland lead 5-4 (1D), avg 3.2 goals, BTTS 80%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Chelsea with an estimated 50% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.33-1.12 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Chelsea, so treat this one with extra caution. Sunderland have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 6), while Chelsea have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 6). Sunderland lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings.