Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Sat 7 Nov, 17:30

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Manchester City

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 1.25

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Nottingham Forest last 5 at home: 0W-1D-4L (scored 0, conceded 5)

6 Manchester City last 3 away: 2W-0D-1L (scored 7, conceded 4)

7 H2H (9): Manchester City lead 6-1 (2D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 33%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Manchester City with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-1.25 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Manchester City, so treat this one with extra caution. Manchester City lead the head-to-head 6-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Nottingham Forest have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 at home (scoring 0, conceding 5), while Manchester City have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 4).