Leeds vs Tottenham

Sat 7 Nov, 12:30

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Leeds

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 1-0. Exact score correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.11 - 0.42

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Leeds last 4 at home: 1W-3D-0L (scored 6, conceded 3)

6 Tottenham last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 4, conceded 4)

7 H2H (9): Tottenham lead 6-2 (1D), avg 3.8 goals, BTTS 78%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Leeds with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.11-0.42 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Tottenham, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Leeds, so treat this one with extra caution. Tottenham lead the head-to-head 6-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 78% of meetings. Leeds have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 6, conceding 3), while Tottenham have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 4).