Ipswich vs Bournemouth

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Bournemouth

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-3. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.10 - 1.63

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Ipswich last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 9)

6 Bournemouth last 4 away: 3W-0D-1L (scored 9, conceded 7)

7 H2H (6): even, 4D, avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 100%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bournemouth with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.10-1.63 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Ipswich, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bournemouth, so treat this one with extra caution. Ipswich have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 8, conceding 9), while Bournemouth have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 7). The head-to-head is even (1 win each, 4 draws in their last 6), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 100% of meetings.