Everton vs Coventry

Fri 6 Nov, 20:00

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Everton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.62 - 0.37

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Everton last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 7, conceded 5)

6 Coventry last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 6, conceded 6)

7 H2H (1): Coventry lead 1-0 (0D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 0%

8 Everton without: T. George, J. Grealish (+2 more)

9 Coventry without: A. Amenda, H. Wright (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Everton with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.62-0.37 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Everton, so treat this one with extra caution. Everton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 7, conceding 5), while Coventry have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 6). Coventry lead the head-to-head 1-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 0% of meetings. Everton without: T. George, J. Grealish (+2 more); Coventry without: A. Amenda, H. Wright (+8 more).