Brighton vs Brentford

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

FT 2-0

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 62%

Brighton

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-0

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 12pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.64 - 0.28

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Brighton last 3 at home: 3W-0D-0L (scored 12, conceded 0)

6 Brentford last 5 away: 1W-3D-1L (scored 9, conceded 9)

7 H2H (10): Brighton lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 40%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brighton with an estimated 62% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.64-0.28 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Brighton runs 12 points above the market's fair price. Brighton have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 12, conceding 0), while Brentford have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 9, conceding 9). Brighton lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings.