Chelsea vs Manchester United

Sat 31 Oct, 12:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Chelsea

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 2.98 - 1.44

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Chelsea last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 17, conceded 11)

5 Manchester United last 5 away: 0W-3D-2L (scored 5, conceded 10)

6 H2H (10): Manchester United lead 4-2 (4D), avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 80%

7 Chelsea without: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens (+12 more)

8 Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Chelsea with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.98-1.44 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Manchester United lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Chelsea have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 17, conceding 11), while Manchester United have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10). Chelsea without: A. Anselmino, J. Gittens (+12 more); Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, B. Sesko (+10 more).