Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

Brentford

Predicted Winner

3-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 9pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.53 - 0.81

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Brentford last 3 at home: 1W-1D-1L (scored 5, conceded 3)

6 Nottingham Forest last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 6, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Brentford lead 4-3 (3D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Brentford without: F. Carvalho, K. Furo (+10 more)

9 Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, D. Ndoye (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brentford with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.53-0.81 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Brentford runs 9 points above the market's fair price. Brentford have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 at home (scoring 5, conceding 3), while Nottingham Forest have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 7). Brentford lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Brentford without: F. Carvalho, K. Furo (+10 more); Nottingham Forest without: Igor Jesus, D. Ndoye (+6 more).