Bournemouth vs Leeds

Sat 31 Oct, 15:00

AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Draw

Predicted Winner

2-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.68 - 0.54

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Bournemouth last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 1)

6 Leeds last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 7, conceded 9)

7 H2H (8): Leeds lead 4-2 (2D), avg 4.1 goals, BTTS 88%

8 Bournemouth without: J. Araujo, A. Scott (+4 more)

9 Leeds without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.68-0.54 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Bournemouth, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Leeds lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 4.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 88% of meetings. Bournemouth have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 1), while Leeds have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 9). Bournemouth without: J. Araujo, A. Scott (+4 more); Leeds without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon (+6 more).