Manchester United vs Bournemouth

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 56%

Manchester United

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 14pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 4.23 - 1.25

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Manchester United last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 12, conceded 7)

6 Bournemouth last 3 away: 1W-1D-1L (scored 5, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Manchester United lead 4-2 (4D), avg 4.0 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo (+12 more)

9 Bournemouth without: J. Araujo, A. Scott (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Manchester United with an estimated 56% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (4.23-1.25 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Manchester United runs 14 points above the market's fair price. Manchester United lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 4.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Manchester United have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 7), while Bournemouth have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). Manchester United without: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo (+12 more); Bournemouth without: J. Araujo, A. Scott (+8 more).