Liverpool vs Brighton

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Brighton

Predicted Winner

1-4

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.66 - 4.12

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Liverpool last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 8)

6 Brighton last 5 away: 3W-1D-1L (scored 13, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Liverpool lead 5-4 (1D), avg 3.4 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Liverpool without: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike (+12 more)

9 Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+14 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Brighton with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.66-4.12 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Liverpool, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Brighton, so treat this one with extra caution. Liverpool have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 8), while Brighton have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 13, conceding 6). Liverpool lead the head-to-head 5-4 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Liverpool without: C. Bradley, H. Ekitike (+12 more); Brighton without: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson (+14 more).