Crystal Palace vs Newcastle

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Crystal Palace

Predicted Winner

4-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.76 - 2.50

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Crystal Palace last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 12, conceded 6)

6 Newcastle last 4 away: 2W-0D-2L (scored 5, conceded 8)

7 H2H (10): Newcastle lead 4-2 (4D), avg 1.9 goals, BTTS 20%

8 Crystal Palace without: C. Riad, T. Tomiyasu (+8 more)

9 Newcastle without: E. Jaouen, V. Livramento (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Crystal Palace with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.76-2.50 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Newcastle, while the blended pick still favours Crystal Palace, so treat this one with extra caution. Newcastle lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 4 draws), averaging 1.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 20% of meetings. Crystal Palace have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 12, conceding 6), while Newcastle have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). Crystal Palace without: C. Riad, T. Tomiyasu (+8 more); Newcastle without: E. Jaouen, V. Livramento (+6 more).