Chelsea vs Tottenham

Sat 24 Oct, 16:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 63%

Chelsea

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Model above market fair probability by 10pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.38 - 0.46

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Chelsea last 5 at home: 4W-1D-0L (scored 19, conceded 9)

6 Tottenham last 4 away: 0W-2D-2L (scored 2, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Chelsea lead 7-2 (1D), avg 3.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Chelsea without: J. Gittens, R. James (+10 more)

9 Tottenham without: R. Bentancur, L. Bergvall (+12 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Chelsea with an estimated 63% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.38-0.46 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model sees more value here than the market does — its estimate for Chelsea runs 10 points above the market's fair price. Chelsea lead the head-to-head 7-2 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Chelsea have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 at home (scoring 19, conceding 9), while Tottenham have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 7). Chelsea without: J. Gittens, R. James (+10 more); Tottenham without: R. Bentancur, L. Bergvall (+12 more).