Arsenal vs Everton

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 61%

Arsenal

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.61 - 0.46

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Arsenal last 3 at home: 3W-0D-0L (scored 7, conceded 2)

5 Everton last 4 away: 1W-3D-0L (scored 7, conceded 3)

6 H2H (10): Arsenal lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 30%

7 Arsenal without: W. Saliba, C. Tzolis (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Arsenal with an estimated 61% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.61-0.46 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Arsenal lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 30% of meetings. Arsenal have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 3 at home (scoring 7, conceding 2), while Everton have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 3). Arsenal without: W. Saliba, C. Tzolis (+6 more).