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Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Sat 19 Sept, 11:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Tottenham

Predicted Winner

1-0

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Tottenham last 5 at home: 2W-2D-1L (scored 10, conceded 5)

6 Aston Villa last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 7, conceded 9)

7 H2H (10): Aston Villa lead 7-3 (0D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Tottenham without: D. Kulusevski, M. Mudryk (+8 more)

9 Aston Villa without: L. Goretzka, I. Maatsen (+14 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Tottenham with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Tottenham, so treat this one with extra caution. Aston Villa lead the head-to-head 7-3 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Tottenham have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 5), while Aston Villa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 9). Tottenham without: D. Kulusevski, M. Mudryk (+8 more); Aston Villa without: L. Goretzka, I. Maatsen (+14 more).