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Leeds vs Crystal Palace

Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

🎯 AI Prediction

MEDIUM 62%

Leeds

Predicted Winner

4-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 3.53 - 1.06

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Leeds last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 2)

5 Crystal Palace last 5 away: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 8)

6 H2H (10): even, 4D, avg 2.8 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Leeds without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon (+4 more)

8 Crystal Palace without: A. Disasi, D. Henderson (+6 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Leeds with an estimated 62% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.53-1.06 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Leeds have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 11, conceding 2), while Crystal Palace have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). The head-to-head is even (3 win each, 4 draws in their last 10), averaging 2.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Leeds without: M. Joseph, J. Rodon (+4 more); Crystal Palace without: A. Disasi, D. Henderson (+6 more).