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Fulham vs Manchester United

Sun 20 Sept, 15:30

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Manchester United

Predicted Winner

2-3

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.83 - 2.12

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Fulham last 5 at home: 2W-0D-3L (scored 9, conceded 8)

6 Manchester United last 3 away: 0W-2D-1L (scored 3, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Manchester United lead 7-1 (2D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 70%

8 Fulham without: T. Cairney, K. Tete (+4 more)

9 Manchester United without: A. Diallo, T. Heaton (+10 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Manchester United with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.83-2.12 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Fulham, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Manchester United, so treat this one with extra caution. Manchester United lead the head-to-head 7-1 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Fulham have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 8), while Manchester United have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 3, conceding 5). Fulham without: T. Cairney, K. Tete (+4 more); Manchester United without: A. Diallo, T. Heaton (+10 more).