Malisheva vs Vllaznia Shkodër

Malisheva is favored (1.77 odds, 51% fair) and has superior recent form: 4W-1D-1L last 6 matches vs Vllaznia's 1W-5L. Malisheva averages 2.1 goals/match and concedes 1.4; Vllaznia concedes 2.3 and scores only 1.2. H2H (6 days ago) shows Malisheva lost 1-2 at home but both teams scored. BTTS occurred in 100% of H2H and both teams show 70-80% BTTS rates recently. Over 2.5 is likely (70% O2.5 for both teams). Third-party model warns (50/50 draw-away split, negative xG), but form and home advantage override. Confidence modest due to limited H2H and Europa Conference League volatility.

Malisheva's superior recent form (4W-1D-1L vs 1W-5L) and home advantage outweigh H2H loss; fair odds 51% align with underlying strength.

Both teams 70-80% BTTS rate; H2H 100% BTTS; Malisheva concedes 1.4/match, Vllaznia scores 1.2 — both will likely score.

Both teams 70% O2.5 rate; Malisheva 2.1 avg scored + Vllaznia 2.3 avg conceded supports Over; fair 52.4% slightly favors Over.

Home/Draw at 1.18 (85% fair) is strong value; Malisheva favored but draw risk (~25% baseline) means 1X captures upside with safety.

Asian -0.5 (1.75, 57% fair) reflects home edge; Malisheva's form and attack suggest they edge out Vllaznia's weakened defense.

Malisheva 2.1 avg scored supports Over 1.5 (56% fair); Vllaznia 1.2 avg scored supports Under 1.5 (77% fair) — clear asymmetry.

Europa Conference League baseline ~10 corners; Malisheva's attacking form and Vllaznia's defensive weakness suggest competitive, corner-heavy match.

No recent card data; Europa Conference League baseline ~4-5 cards; H2H recent suggests competitive but not overly heated; lean slightly Over.