Universitatea Craiova vs ML Vitebsk

Craiova is heavy favorite (1.25 odds, 73.7% fair) after demolishing Vitebsk 4-1 just 7 days ago in the reverse fixture. Recent form favors Craiova (1.8 goals/match, 50% CS rate) vs Vitebsk's leaky defense (1.7 conceded/match, 22% CS rate). Vitebsk averages 2.2 goals but concedes heavily; BTTS hit 100% in H2H and 78% in recent form. Over 2.5 is 60.3% fair but Craiova's home stats show only 40% O2.5 rate — slight caution. Vitebsk's away record (1 goal in 1 match) suggests limited threat, but their high BTTS rate and Craiova's defensive inconsistency (50% CS) support both-teams-score. Confidence modest due to limited season-long home data and only one H2H sample.

Craiova 73.7% fair probability, recent 4-1 H2H win, superior recent form and defensive record.

100% BTTS in H2H, Vitebsk 78% BTTS rate, Craiova 50% BTTS rate; both teams likely to score.

Fair 60.3% for Over; Vitebsk's 89% O2.5 rate and high-scoring tendency outweighs Craiova's 40% home O2.5 rate.

Craiova win (73.7%) + draw (17.1%) = 90.8% combined; away win only 9.2%.

Craiova -1.5 at 57.8% fair; H2H 4-1 win and form gap support covering -1.5, though limited home sample data.

Craiova Over 1.5 at 75.2% fair; Vitebsk Under 1.5 at 90.1% fair; Craiova averages 1.8/match, Vitebsk 1.0 away.

Fair 59.9% for Over 8.5; Craiova dominance and high-intensity match expected; UEFA CL baseline ~10 corners for competitive fixture.

UEFA CL baseline ~4-5 cards; no recent card data; Vitebsk 3 yellows in one away match suggests discipline risk, but limited sample.