Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Petrocub

Recent H2H (08.07.26) ended 1-1 with BTTS. Egnatia shows mixed form (DWWWWLLWLL, 1.8 avg scored/1.3 conceded); Petrocub stronger defensively (1.8 scored/0.6 conceded) but on a D2 streak. Both teams average 1.8 goals scored; Petrocub's 50% clean sheet rate vs Egnatia's 30% suggests defensive edge. Market prices draw at 27.8% (fair), home at 52.8%, but recent form convergence, identical attacking output, and H2H precedent (draw + BTTS) warrant draw as baseline. BTTS 40-50% in recent form; both teams capable. Under 2.5 favored by market (57.6%) given Petrocub's defensive strength.

H2H 1-1 precedent, identical attacking stats, and recent form convergence override home odds; draw is baseline when odds within 25% and both teams <1.5 xG.

Both teams scored in H2H; Egnatia BTTS 50%, Petrocub 40%; both average 1.8 goals scored despite Petrocub's clean sheet rate.

Market fair 57.6% Under; Petrocub's defensive solidity (0.6 conceded avg) and recent draw streak suggest low-scoring pattern.

Home/Draw at 89.3% odds reflects strong home + draw baseline; high-confidence play.

Asian -0.5 at 57.8% fair; slight home edge in odds but form suggests tighter contest; marginal value.

Home Under 1.5 at 58.8%, Away Under 1.5 at 84.7%; both teams' recent form and Petrocub's defensive record support low individual totals.

No corner data; market fair 59.9% Under; UEFA CL qualifier typically 9-11 corners; lean Under on market signal only.

No card data; UEFA CL qualifier baseline ~4-5 cards; market leans Under; insufficient data for confidence.