Toulouse vs Strasbourg

Fri 6 Nov, 19:45

FT 3-1

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Toulouse

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 3-1

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.28 - 1.32

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Toulouse last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 8)

6 Strasbourg last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 8, conceded 13)

7 H2H (10): Strasbourg lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.6 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Toulouse without: A. Donnum, R. Messali (+4 more)

9 Strasbourg without: J. Panichelli, F. Balde (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Toulouse with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.28-1.32 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Strasbourg, while the blended pick still favours Toulouse, so treat this one with extra caution. Strasbourg lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.6 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Toulouse have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 8), while Strasbourg have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 13). Toulouse without: A. Donnum, R. Messali (+4 more); Strasbourg without: J. Panichelli, F. Balde (+2 more).