Rennes vs Lille

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

LOW 38%

Rennes

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 2-1. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.30 - 0.83

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Rennes last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 9, conceded 2)

6 Lille last 4 away: 0W-2D-2L (scored 2, conceded 6)

7 H2H (10): Lille lead 5-1 (4D), avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 70%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Rennes with an estimated 38% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.30-0.83 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Rennes, so treat this one with extra caution. Lille lead the head-to-head 5-1 (with 4 draws), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 70% of meetings. Rennes have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 2), while Lille have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 6).