Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Sat 7 Nov, 20:05

FT 1-0

AI Prediction

HIGH 74%

Paris Saint Germain

Predicted Winner

3-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-0

Predicted: 3-0. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Model below market fair probability by 11pp

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.64 - 0.33

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Paris Saint Germain last 4 at home: 4W-0D-0L (scored 15, conceded 4)

6 Estac Troyes last 5 away: 1W-2D-2L (scored 4, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): Paris Saint Germain lead 9-0 (1D), avg 4.1 goals, BTTS 50%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Paris Saint Germain with an estimated 74% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.64-0.33 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The market is more confident in Paris Saint Germain than the model is — the blend sits 11 points below the market's fair price, making this a lower-conviction pick. Paris Saint Germain lead the head-to-head 9-0 (with 1 draw), averaging 4.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Paris Saint Germain have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 15, conceding 4), while Estac Troyes have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 7).