Auxerre vs Paris FC

Sat 7 Nov, 18:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Paris FC

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.02 - 0.82

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Auxerre last 5 at home: 3W-1D-1L (scored 9, conceded 8)

6 Paris FC last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 8)

7 H2H (8): Auxerre lead 3-1 (4D), avg 1.8 goals, BTTS 38%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Paris FC with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.02-0.82 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Auxerre, API-Football's model leans toward Auxerre, while the blended pick still favours Paris FC, so treat this one with extra caution. Auxerre lead the head-to-head 3-1 (with 4 draws), averaging 1.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 38% of meetings. Auxerre have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 8), while Paris FC have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 8).