Lens vs Paris FC

Sat 24 Oct, 18:45

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Lens

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.53 - 0.87

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Lens last 3 at home: 1W-0D-2L (scored 2, conceded 4)

5 Paris FC last 5 away: 1W-1D-3L (scored 5, conceded 10)

6 H2H (10): Lens lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 40%

7 Lens without: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou (+8 more)

8 Paris FC without: J. Ikone, N. Sangui (+2 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lens with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.53-0.87 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Lens lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Lens have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 at home (scoring 2, conceding 4), while Paris FC have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 10). Lens without: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou (+8 more); Paris FC without: J. Ikone, N. Sangui (+2 more).