Venezia vs Udinese

Fri 6 Nov, 19:45

FT 2-1

AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Udinese

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 2-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.85 - 2.20

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Venezia last 4 at home: 1W-0D-3L (scored 3, conceded 8)

6 Udinese last 4 away: 0W-2D-2L (scored 5, conceded 8)

7 H2H (5): Udinese lead 4-1 (0D), avg 3.8 goals, BTTS 80%

8 Venezia without: A. Adorante, B. Franjic (+6 more)

9 Udinese without: D. Alaba, I. Gueye (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Udinese with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.85-2.20 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Venezia, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Udinese, so treat this one with extra caution. Udinese lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.8 goals per game with both teams scoring in 80% of meetings. Venezia have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 at home (scoring 3, conceding 8), while Udinese have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 8). Venezia without: A. Adorante, B. Franjic (+6 more); Udinese without: D. Alaba, I. Gueye (+8 more).