Parma vs Bologna

Sat 7 Nov, 17:00

FT 1-2

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 52%

Bologna

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-2

Predicted: 0-1. Winner: Correct!

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.38 - 1.21

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Parma last 5 at home: 1W-2D-2L (scored 3, conceded 7)

6 Bologna last 5 away: 3W-0D-2L (scored 8, conceded 5)

7 H2H (10): Bologna lead 5-2 (3D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 60%

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Bologna with an estimated 52% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.38-1.21 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Bologna, so treat this one with extra caution. Bologna lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Parma have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 7), while Bologna have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 5).