Napoli vs Lazio

Sun 8 Nov, 11:30

FT 1-1

AI Prediction

LOW 47%

Lazio

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 1-1

Predicted: 1-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.76 - 2.23

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Napoli last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 11, conceded 6)

6 Lazio last 4 away: 4W-0D-0L (scored 13, conceded 3)

7 H2H (10): Lazio lead 5-3 (2D), avg 2.3 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Napoli without: A. Buongiorno

9 Lazio without: Patric

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Lazio with an estimated 47% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.76-2.23 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Napoli, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Lazio, so treat this one with extra caution. Lazio lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.3 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Napoli have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 11, conceding 6), while Lazio have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 13, conceding 3). Napoli without: A. Buongiorno; Lazio without: Patric.