Monza vs Atalanta

Sun 8 Nov, 14:00

FT 0-1

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Monza

Predicted Winner

3-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Actual result: 0-1

Predicted: 3-2. Winner: Incorrect

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 3.22 - 1.59

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Monza last 4 at home: 2W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 8)

6 Atalanta last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 9)

7 H2H (6): Atalanta lead 6-0 (0D), avg 3.5 goals, BTTS 33%

8 Atalanta without: I. Hien

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Monza with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (3.22-1.59 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Atalanta, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Monza, so treat this one with extra caution. Atalanta lead the head-to-head 6-0 (with 0 draws), averaging 3.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Monza have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 4 at home (scoring 9, conceding 8), while Atalanta have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 9). Atalanta without: I. Hien.