Parma vs Udinese

Wed 28 Oct, 17:30

AI Prediction

LOW 43%

Udinese

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.44 - 2.24

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Parma last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 8)

6 Udinese last 4 away: 1W-1D-2L (scored 8, conceded 10)

7 H2H (10): even, 2D, avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 60%

8 Parma without: N. Elphege, L. Valenti (+2 more)

9 Udinese without: D. Alaba, V. Bayo (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Udinese with an estimated 43% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.44-2.24 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Udinese, so treat this one with extra caution. Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 8), while Udinese have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 10). The head-to-head is even (4 win each, 2 draws in their last 10), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Parma without: N. Elphege, L. Valenti (+2 more); Udinese without: D. Alaba, V. Bayo (+8 more).