Monza vs Napoli

Wed 28 Oct, 19:45

AI Prediction

LOW 42%

Napoli

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson, apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 2.14 - 1.07

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Napoli last 4 away: 0W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 8)

6 H2H (6): Napoli lead 4-1 (1D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 17%

7 Monza without: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye (+6 more)

8 Napoli without: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Napoli with an estimated 42% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (2.14-1.07 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Monza, API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Napoli, so treat this one with extra caution. Napoli lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 17% of meetings. Napoli have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 8). Monza without: M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye (+6 more); Napoli without: Alisson Santos, B. Badiashile (+10 more).