Frosinone vs Lecce

Thu 29 Oct, 17:30

AI Prediction

LOW 45%

Frosinone

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.45 - 1.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Frosinone last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 11, conceded 6)

6 Lecce last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 5, conceded 6)

7 H2H (6): Lecce lead 3-0 (3D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch

9 Lecce without: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Frosinone with an estimated 45% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.45-1.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours Frosinone, so treat this one with extra caution. Lecce lead the head-to-head 3-0 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Frosinone have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 11, conceding 6), while Lecce have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 6). Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch; Lecce without: M. Berisha, L. Coulibaly (+8 more).