Fiorentina vs Atalanta

Thu 29 Oct, 19:45

AI Prediction

LOW 37%

Fiorentina

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: poisson disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 1.13 - 1.45

4 Fiorentina last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 6, conceded 9)

5 Atalanta last 5 away: 1W-0D-4L (scored 4, conceded 9)

6 H2H (10): even, 2D, avg 2.9 goals, BTTS 60%

7 Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+8 more)

8 Atalanta without: R. Bellanova, I. Hien (+16 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Fiorentina with an estimated 37% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (1.13-1.45 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the Poisson model leans toward Atalanta, while the blended pick still favours Fiorentina, so treat this one with extra caution. Fiorentina have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 6, conceding 9), while Atalanta have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 9). The head-to-head is even (4 win each, 2 draws in their last 10), averaging 2.9 goals per game with both teams scoring in 60% of meetings. Fiorentina without: A. Atta, F. Parisi (+8 more); Atalanta without: R. Bellanova, I. Hien (+16 more).