AC Milan vs Bologna

Wed 28 Oct, 17:30

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 54%

AC Milan

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.28 - 0.43

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 AC Milan last 4 at home: 3W-0D-1L (scored 8, conceded 4)

5 Bologna last 5 away: 2W-0D-3L (scored 4, conceded 4)

6 H2H (10): AC Milan lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.2 goals, BTTS 40%

7 AC Milan without: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia (+12 more)

8 Bologna without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini (+6 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours AC Milan with an estimated 54% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.28-0.43 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. AC Milan lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. AC Milan have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4 at home (scoring 8, conceding 4), while Bologna have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 4, conceding 4). AC Milan without: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia (+12 more); Bologna without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini (+6 more).