Udinese vs AC Milan

Sun 25 Oct, 19:45

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 57%

AC Milan

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.42 - 1.75

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Udinese last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 4, conceded 8)

6 AC Milan last 5 away: 1W-3D-1L (scored 8, conceded 7)

7 H2H (10): AC Milan lead 5-3 (2D), avg 3.1 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Udinese without: D. Alaba, V. Bayo (+8 more)

9 AC Milan without: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours AC Milan with an estimated 57% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.42-1.75 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours AC Milan, so treat this one with extra caution. AC Milan lead the head-to-head 5-3 (with 2 draws), averaging 3.1 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Udinese have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 8), while AC Milan have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 7). Udinese without: D. Alaba, V. Bayo (+8 more); AC Milan without: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia (+10 more).