Napoli vs AS Roma

Sat 24 Oct, 16:00

AI Prediction

LOW 40%

AS Roma

Predicted Winner

1-2

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.00 - 0.89

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Napoli last 5 at home: 3W-0D-2L (scored 9, conceded 6)

6 AS Roma last 4 away: 2W-2D-0L (scored 7, conceded 1)

7 H2H (10): Napoli lead 4-1 (5D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Napoli without: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno (+6 more)

9 AS Roma without: M. Bah, P. Dybala (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours AS Roma with an estimated 40% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.00-0.89 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward a draw, while the blended pick still favours AS Roma, so treat this one with extra caution. Napoli lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 5 draws), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Napoli have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 9, conceding 6), while AS Roma have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 7, conceding 1). Napoli without: Alisson Santos, A. Buongiorno (+6 more); AS Roma without: M. Bah, P. Dybala (+8 more).