Genoa vs Venezia

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

LOW 46%

Genoa

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.78 - 1.33

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Genoa last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 5, conceded 8)

5 Venezia last 5 away: 0W-1D-4L (scored 6, conceded 12)

6 H2H (8): Genoa lead 4-2 (2D), avg 2.4 goals, BTTS 50%

7 Genoa without: E. Havel, D. Sow (+10 more)

8 Venezia without: A. Adorante, T. Correia (+10 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Genoa with an estimated 46% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.78-1.33 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Genoa lead the head-to-head 4-2 (with 2 draws), averaging 2.4 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Genoa have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 5, conceding 8), while Venezia have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 6, conceding 12). Genoa without: E. Havel, D. Sow (+10 more); Venezia without: A. Adorante, T. Correia (+10 more).