Como vs Sassuolo

Sat 24 Oct, 13:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 61%

Como

Predicted Winner

2-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Over

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.67 - 0.50

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Como last 4 at home: 3W-1D-0L (scored 10, conceded 3)

5 Sassuolo last 5 away: 0W-1D-4L (scored 8, conceded 13)

6 H2H (3): Como lead 2-1 (0D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 33%

7 Como without: T. Chalobah, A. Diao (+8 more)

8 Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, J. Idzes (+8 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Como with an estimated 61% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.67-0.50 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Como have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 4 at home (scoring 10, conceding 3), while Sassuolo have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 away from home (scoring 8, conceding 13). Como lead the head-to-head 2-1 (with 0 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 33% of meetings. Como without: T. Chalobah, A. Diao (+8 more); Sassuolo without: D. Boloca, J. Idzes (+8 more).