Cagliari vs Bologna

Sat 24 Oct, 13:00

AI Prediction

LOW 41%

Draw

Predicted Winner

1-1

Predicted Score

Yes

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.45 - 0.30

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Cagliari last 5 at home: 2W-1D-2L (scored 4, conceded 4)

6 Bologna last 4 away: 1W-0D-3L (scored 2, conceded 4)

7 H2H (10): Bologna lead 6-3 (1D), avg 2.0 goals, BTTS 40%

8 Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+4 more)

9 Bologna without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini (+4 more)

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Draw with an estimated 41% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.45-0.30 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Bologna, while the blended pick still favours Draw, so treat this one with extra caution. Bologna lead the head-to-head 6-3 (with 1 draw), averaging 2.0 goals per game with both teams scoring in 40% of meetings. Cagliari have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 at home (scoring 4, conceding 4), while Bologna have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 4). Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+4 more); Bologna without: E. Holm, R. Orsolini (+4 more).