Atalanta vs Frosinone

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00

AI Prediction

MEDIUM 51%

Atalanta

Predicted Winner

2-0

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

Key Factors

1 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

2 Poisson xG model: 1.56 - 0.89

3 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

4 Atalanta last 5 at home: 4W-0D-1L (scored 10, conceded 5)

5 Frosinone last 4 away: 1W-2D-1L (scored 5, conceded 5)

6 H2H (6): Atalanta lead 4-1 (1D), avg 3.2 goals, BTTS 17%

7 Atalanta without: I. Hien, F. Kessie (+12 more)

8 Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch

Detailed Analysis

The model favours Atalanta with an estimated 51% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (1.56-0.89 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. The model and the market land within a couple of points of each other here, which reinforces the pick. Atalanta lead the head-to-head 4-1 (with 1 draw), averaging 3.2 goals per game with both teams scoring in 17% of meetings. Atalanta have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 5 at home (scoring 10, conceding 5), while Frosinone have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 5). Atalanta without: I. Hien, F. Kessie (+12 more); Frosinone without: F. Grillitsch, F. Grillitsch.