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Udinese vs Cagliari

Sat 19 Sept, 13:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 44%

Cagliari

Predicted Winner

0-2

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: market disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.37 - 1.67

4 Cagliari last 4 away: 2W-2D-0L (scored 5, conceded 3)

5 H2H (10): Udinese lead 5-2 (3D), avg 2.5 goals, BTTS 50%

6 Udinese without: J. Arizala, J. Piotrowski (+6 more)

7 Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+6 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Cagliari with an estimated 44% win probability, based on market odds and a Poisson xG model (0.37-1.67 goals). Not every signal agrees here — the market leans toward Udinese, while the blended pick still favours Cagliari, so treat this one with extra caution. Udinese lead the head-to-head 5-2 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.5 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Cagliari have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 4 away from home (scoring 5, conceding 3). Udinese without: J. Arizala, J. Piotrowski (+6 more); Cagliari without: M. Felici, R. Idrissi (+6 more).