⚽

Parma vs Genoa

Sun 20 Sept, 13:00

🎯 AI Prediction

LOW 35%

Genoa

Predicted Winner

0-1

Predicted Score

Both Teams Score

Under

Over/Under 2.5

🔑 Key Factors

1 Signals diverge: apiFootball disagrees with the final pick

2 De-vigged market odds (6 bookmakers) included in the estimate

3 Poisson xG model: 0.34 - 0.00

4 API-Football's own statistical model included in the estimate

5 Parma last 5 at home: 1W-1D-3L (scored 3, conceded 6)

6 Genoa last 3 away: 1W-0D-2L (scored 2, conceded 11)

7 H2H (10): Parma lead 4-3 (3D), avg 2.7 goals, BTTS 50%

8 Parma without: A. Bernabe, H. Nicolussi Caviglia (+4 more)

9 Genoa without: E. Havel, J. Vasquez (+4 more)

📝 Detailed Analysis

The model favours Genoa with an estimated 35% win probability, based on market odds, a Poisson xG model (0.34-0.00 goals) and API-Football's statistical model. Not every signal agrees here — API-Football's model leans toward Parma, while the blended pick still favours Genoa, so treat this one with extra caution. Parma have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 at home (scoring 3, conceding 6), while Genoa have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 3 away from home (scoring 2, conceding 11). Parma lead the head-to-head 4-3 (with 3 draws), averaging 2.7 goals per game with both teams scoring in 50% of meetings. Parma without: A. Bernabe, H. Nicolussi Caviglia (+4 more); Genoa without: E. Havel, J. Vasquez (+4 more).